Recently, I decided to try the new iTunes video downloading feature. I don't have a video iPod, but I realized I could probably just watch the episodes on my monitor at home. Since moving into a very small studio apartment in San Francisco, I've opted to have a flat-panel computer display instead of a television, since I use my computer as my primary work and media tool (which conveniently doubles as a DVD player). I've forgone television and cable for high-speed internet (wirelessly, of course) and Netflix. This setup works great for movies, and even older television shows which area available on DVD. At first, I thought this arrangement would suffice, while harboring fantasies of buying a USB TV tuner down the line.
But to my surprise, I miss TV. Or rather, I miss parts of TV. Not the surfing around part, finding little of interest and settling for some mediocre piece of shock voyeurism or info-tainment. But I do miss my occasional evening bouts with decent dramas like The West Wing, or my guilty pleasure, Veronica Mars. I'm still not sure I want a TV – I find it too easy to be sucked into sense-dulling shows, regularly interrupted by abrasive, instrusive commercials (with a few clever exceptions). So instead, I've turned to that joy of modern living, the Internet. The iTunes store now makes recent episodes of select network shows (like Lost) available for download, although at a relatively low resolution intended for the new iPods. The files are quick enough to download, and run only $1.99 a pop -- but the cost adds up over the course of a season, especially given the low quality of the files (at 22 episodes a season, you'd end up paying about the same as if you waited and bought the much higher-quality DVD). And if more shows were available, and you bought five a week, suddenly the cost begins to rival some cable packages.
So financially, iTunes may not yet be proffering a workable model for purchasing individual, ad-free shows online rather than through cable television (or attempting to tune in with an antenna!). By contrast, of course, peer-to-peer networking technology has already expanded to fill this gap somewhat -- I can easily go online and use a program like Bit Torrent to take advantage of "distributed networks," where files are uploaded and downloaded over a dispersed network of users. Undoubtably, the entertainment industry will feel pressured to formulate some response to the increasing availability of digital media files, as the RIAA did when faced with the rise of Napster and the popularity of MP3s. But what does internet file-sharing mean for the television industry? TV programming is produced primarily with the revenue from ad sales, which in turn are funded by marketing budgets that depend on product sales. Ultimately in television, the viewing audience becomes the product sold to advertisers, and the money we spend on consumer goods supports those viewing habits.
For now, of course, most people will continue to buy bigger, thinner TVs and pay for cable, even as new business models show promise, like the iTunes store and Netflix. But will the lure of ad-free, easily acquired shows erode the advertising model on which television currently depends? Moreover, will a feasible price-point suffice to meet programming budgets? I wonder, though, about the effect dwindling outlets for advertising will have on the consumer economy. Will GoogleAds simply replace TV and radio advertising, listed visibly on podcasting and bit-torrenting sites? Or will the consumption of "durable" goods slowly decline as music, movies and TV shows are increasingly available directly in digital format, sans paid advertising? Then again, perhaps a model in which consumers purchase digital media directly from producers will have a "democritizing" effect, a benefit long proclaimed by proponents of an internet society. While I have little sympathy for the RIAA or the entertainment industry giants (five of whom control 90% of all television channels, publishing houses, record labels, and most other media outlets), I'm deeply curious as to what the impact of slippery new digital media technologies will have on such a signficiant chunk of our media-saturated economy.
As a side note, after writing this (but before I'd had a chance to post), I heard a tidbit on Marketplace yesterday about a leaked memo from Microsoft. Apparently, I'm not the only one giving this issue some thought -- it looks like the Associated Press and Redmond's finest are teaming up to provide news video online. Sounds like executives at both companies are nervous about new technology outstripping older business models.
there's still a massive gap between the availability of content on bittorrent and the ease of recording shows on a television. Between the PVR software on my PC (which, is set to grab episodes of Rome, Battlestar Galactica, Good Eats and occasionally decent films on IFC or HBO) and the bittorrent client, I have multiple vectors for grabbing video content, but I find that I tend to default to using the PVR.
Due to the ephemeral nature of the distributed network, bittorrent content is largely dictated by the whim of the zeitgeist. The only shows that are easy to get are popular ones that everyone's seeding. So, you know, Rome is easy. Lost is everywhere. But, like, the most recent episode of Frontline tends to drop off within a week of airing ... if it ever appears at all. And good luck getting, say, anything on the Food Network that isn't Iron Chef.
Absent a massive drop of storage costs, new breakthroughs in video compression and increased speed in the final mile of consumer broadband, I don't see that changing anytime soon. Ten years perhaps, but not by 2009.
However, by 2009, I also expect that the national mandate for digital TV will begin to change broadcast content in ways that will blur the distinction between a TV and computer. I expect, for instance, features that we are accustomed to on DVD, like multiple audio tracks and video perspectives, to make their way into broadcast signal. Imagine, say, being able to switch camera angles in a sports game; or getting an evening news segment with optional Spanish or Mandarin language tracks. Imagine, as well, rotating encryption keys that accompany every MPEG stream that will allow you to only play that video clip on a limited number of receivers.
All, the same, there's a valid point in speculating on a future world without advertising. I imagine that the networks will waste a lot of effort in pressuring DVR manufacturers to eliminate ad-skip features before realizing that the market has moved past the point where such a standard can be imposed. What we'll see, instead, is likely a mix of video-on-demand revenue, product placement, "official sponsors" and "program underwriters".